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28 Oct 2021 | 1200 UTC | 02M/GLORIA - ADVISORY 5


Current location: 35.6°N, 16.1°E Maximum sustained winds: 35 kt/40 mph Minimum central pressure: 1008 mbar Moving: WNW at 9 kt

FORECAST DISCUSSION: Gloria has finally made the turn to the northwest, and the models have also come into greater agreement about its future. It is now clear that Gloria will make an approach to Sicily, stall well off the coast, then accelerate to landfall in eastern Libya. The main questions remaining are: how close Gloria will get to Sicily before stalling, how long the stall will last, and how favorable conditions will be in the final stretch to Libya. The models want a faster speed and the forecast is updated to reflect this. Intensity is kept the same as the previous forecast, in line with the ICON, but GFS, CMC, and EURO now suggest weakening before landfall. If the model trend continues, future intensity forecasts will reflect it.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Gloria's LLCC is now surrounded by deep convection on three sides, and the convection shows clear signs of organization. A formative eye may even be developing. Gloria is upgraded to a 35 kt subtropical storm based on the improvement in organization, and the estimate may be conservative, based on convective trends. Updates will be forthcoming as new data comes in. The system is expected to continue to strengthen as it approaches Sicily and Malta. Interests in Sicily, Malta, and Libya should be prepared for periods of high wind and heavy rain over the forecast period.