We are one of the few and by far the most popular source on the Internet for Medicanes, subtropical and tropical cyclones forming in the Mediterranean Sea. We track and archive them, and issue advisories at our Twitter account. If you’d like to help us track, join our Discord, located below:
While the site is being finished, outlooks will be posted here.
OUTLOOK (MEDI / BLACK SEA) SEP 14, 2020 19:00 UTC 1. The disturbance currently over the extreme southern Mediterranean Sea has developed a trough and is producing vigorous convection. While there is general model consensus that a system will form, there is absolutely no consensus on its intensity. On the extremes, the GFS calls for a barely developing system with a pressure of 1015 millibars, whereas the ICON calls for a pressure of 978 millibars and the SUIS 976 millibars, which if it verifies would be among the five lowest ever recorded in a Mediterranean TLC. I am currently inclined to use the a blend of the forecasts created by the CMC GDPS, JMA, and ARPEGE models (988, mid-990s and 1004 mbars respectively), as these models seem to lay in the middle of the forecast envelope, but this is ultimately a balance fallacy and I will take all models into account. Due to the varying model support, we are increasing the chances to 60 percent for now. It is worth noting that the system is not taking the track the ECMWF and GFS have it taking that results in it entering dry air and not doing anything of note at this time. CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...MEDIUM...50% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...HIGH...60%
|starfrost / starfrost013||Manager & Creator|
|Giedriuswithnonlatinname, TornadoGenius, Rafail, Hypercane||Forecasters|
|Caleb, TheWeatherWill||Graphics Team|
Tracking medicanes since 2018!