We are one of the few and by far the most popular source on the Internet for Medicanes, subtropical and tropical cyclones forming in the Mediterranean Sea. We track and archive them, and issue advisories at our Twitter account. If you’d like to help us track, join our Discord, located below:
While the site is being finished, outlooks will be posted here.
OUTLOOK (MEDI / BLACK SEA) SEP 13, 2020 14:00 UTC 1. The area of interest approximately over Valta currently producing vigorous convection, showers, and rainstorms has off and on model support. I am personally working on attempting to obtain ensemble data for this system and use it in future forecasts. The system currently persists in an area of moderate (~20kt) and decreasing shear, a somewhat unstable atmosphere with somewhat significant land-sea temperature inversion, and decreasing wind shear with 28C SSTs , all of which are favourable for development. However, due to the rapidly changing nature of model support for this system, we have elected to only increase the chances of Mediterranean TLC development to 40% for now. CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...LOW...0% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS...LOW...40% 2. A disturbance is active in the extreme southwestern Black Sea. It is not expected to develop. CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...LOW...0% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS...LOW...0% Forecaster Starfrost, Rafael (for graphic)
|starfrost / starfrost013||Manager & Creator|
|Giedriuswithnonlatinname, TornadoGenius, Rafail, Hypercane||Forecasters|
|Caleb, TheWeatherWill||Graphics Team|
Tracking medicanes since 2018!