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15 Aug 2021 | 1800 UTC | 01M/FALCHION - ADVISORY 7 [CORRECTED 1924 UTC]
16 Aug 2021 | 1800 UTC | 01M/FALCHION - ADVISORY 10


...FALCHION HAS A SECOND WIND...
...FALCHION IS DEAD, FOR REAL THIS TIME...


Current location: 45.6°N, 37.5°E
Current location: 45.4°N, 36.6°E
Maximum sustained winds: 25 kt/30 mph/45 kph
Maximum sustained winds: 15 kt/20 mph
Minimum central pressure: 1011 mbar
Minimum central pressure: 1015 mbar
Moving: S 5kt...5 MPH...10 kph
Moving: SW 1kt...1 MPH...2 kph


FORECAST DISCUSSION:  
FORECAST DISCUSSION:  
The remnant low of Falchion has drifted slowly to the Sea of Azov, and developed persistent deep convection over the center. The low level circulation has become better defined and Falchion is, once again, a Medicane. The current slow south-southwesterly motion is expected to result in landfall on the Taman Peninsula within the next few hours. More hostile atmospheric conditions combined with land interaction should cause Falchion's final demise. The model consensus prefers a westerly motion to Crimea, and the forecast is a compromise between the current motion and the model forecasts. Regardless, the most likely outcome is dissipation within a day.
Falchion continues to lack deep convection and has now become a remnant low. This is the last advisory. The exposed LLC is drifting slowly SW and this motion will continue through dissipation over Crimea.  


CURRENT CONDITIONS:
CURRENT CONDITIONS:
Falchion is producing concentrated deep convection primarily over the south-eastern Sea of Azov and neighboring Russia, and rain is also spreading over the Crimea and Ukraine. Heavy rain will continue as long as the convection holds.
Falchion is producing light rain over the southern Sea of Azov, neighboring Russia, and eastern Crimea, and this will continue until Falchion dissipates completely.


INIT  15/1800Z 45.6N 37.5E  25 KT  30 MPH
INIT  16/1800Z 45.4N 36.6E   15 KT  20 MPH...REMNANT LOW
12H  16/0600Z 45.2N, 37.0E  25 KT  30 MPH
24H  16/1800Z 45.0 N, 36.1E   15 KT  20 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
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Revision as of 11:35, 17 August 2021

Welcome to the Mediterranean Cyclone Centre!

We are one of the few and by far the most popular source on the Internet for Medicanes, subtropical and tropical cyclones forming in the Mediterranean Sea. We track and archive them, and issue advisories at our Twitter account. If you’d like to help us track, join our Discord, located below:

While the site is being finished, outlooks will be posted here.

Current outlook

Active Tropical Cyclones:
  • Mediterranean Sea:
    • Areas to watch for development: None
  • Black Sea:
    • Areas to watch for development: None
  • Caspian Sea:
    • Areas to watch for development: None
  • Northeast Atlantic:
    • Areas to watch for development: None
CurrentOutlook.png
16 Aug 2021 | 1800 UTC | 01M/FALCHION - ADVISORY 10

...FALCHION IS DEAD, FOR REAL THIS TIME...

Current location: 45.4°N, 36.6°E
Maximum sustained winds: 15 kt/20 mph
Minimum central pressure: 1015 mbar
Moving: SW 1kt...1 MPH...2 kph

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 
Falchion continues to lack deep convection and has now become a remnant low. This is the last advisory. The exposed LLC is drifting slowly SW and this motion will continue through dissipation over Crimea. 

CURRENT CONDITIONS:
Falchion is producing light rain over the southern Sea of Azov, neighboring Russia, and eastern Crimea, and this will continue until Falchion dissipates completely.

INIT  16/1800Z 45.4N  36.6E   15 KT  20 MPH...REMNANT LOW

Names

We created a naming list in 2018, consisting of 96 names. There are a total of ninety-six names, which are used in rotation. If a storm is retired, using all letters of the English Alphabet minus U and W. These are the next 10 names. The most recent name to be used was Falchion, which is currently active as of 12 August 2021.

  • Gloria (unused)
  • Helios (unused)
  • Isabella (unused)
  • Jon (unused)
  • Karissa (unused)
  • Luigi (unused)
  • Marquesa (unused)
  • Nikolai (unused)
  • Odessa (unused)

Staff

Staff Position
starfrost / starfrost013 Manager & Creator
TornadoGenius Social Media Manager
Giedriuswithnonlatinname, TornadoGenius, Rafail, Hypercane, RyanKnack Forecasters
Caleb, TheWeatherWill Graphics Team

Discord

https://discord.gg/WTUwpPd

Tracking medicanes since 2018!