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12 Aug 2021 | 1600 UTC | Outlook
12 Aug 2021 | 1800 UTC | 01M/FALCHION - ADVISORY 1


...FALCHION FORMS...
...FALCHION CHURNING OVER THE BLACK SEA NEAR RUSSIA...


1. The area of low pressure currently over the north-central Black Sea now meets the criteria for classification, and has been named Falchion. A full advisory will follow at 18z.
Current center location: 44.0ºN, 37.8ºE
Maximum sustained winds: 25kt/30 MPH/46 kph
Moving: NE at 5kt/6 MPH/10 kph


Current center location: 43.7ºN, 37.1ºE
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Maximum sustained winds: 25kt/30 MPH/46 kph
The area of low pressure over the north-central Black Sea has been classified as Medistorm FALCHION. Falchion is moving slowly to the north-east, and is expected to strengthen and make landfall near Gelendhzik by tomorrow evening. Steering is expected to collapse as Falchion approaches the coast, and the cyclone should stall out near or over the coast for about a day. Following this, Falchion is expected to return to the Black Sea and head SSE toward Turkey, but conditions will not be as favorable and the storm will likely weaken. Another stall is possible in the vicinity of the Turkish coast, and Falchion will dissipate near or over Turkey.
Moving: NW at 5kt/6 MPH/10 kph
 
CURRENT CONDITIONS:
Falchion exhibits a shear pattern, with the low level circulation (LLC) and mid-level circulation (MLC) are widely separated. The MLC is already nearing the Sea of Azov, and is likely to decouple entirely over the next few hours. Ragged convection has developing in wide bands, largely from the MLC. The strongest winds and heaviest rains are found in those bands, which can bring heavy rain and wind hazards to locations well away from the center of the storm.  This structure is expected to continue up to landfall with an increase in wind speed. Interests in southern Russia should be prepared for strong winds and heavy rain, with flash flooding possible.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1800Z 44.0N  37.8E  30 KT  35 MPH
12H  13/0600Z 44.3N  38.0E  35 KT  40 MPH
24H  13/1800Z 44.5N  38.1E  40 KT  45 MPH...ON THE COAST
36H  14/0600Z 45.0N  37.5E  30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
48H  14/1800Z 43.8N  35.6E  30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H  15/1800Z 42.3N  34.7E  25 KT  30 MPH
96H  16/1800Z 41.5N  33.0E  15 KT  20 MPH...DISSIPATED


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Revision as of 14:54, 12 August 2021

Welcome to the Mediterranean Cyclone Centre!

We are one of the few and by far the most popular source on the Internet for Medicanes, subtropical and tropical cyclones forming in the Mediterranean Sea. We track and archive them, and issue advisories at our Twitter account. If you’d like to help us track, join our Discord, located below:

While the site is being finished, outlooks will be posted here.

Current outlook

Active Tropical Cyclones:
  • Mediterranean Sea:
    • Areas to watch for development: None
  • Black Sea:
    • Areas to watch for development: None
  • Caspian Sea:
    • Areas to watch for development: None
  • Northeast Atlantic:
    • Areas to watch for development: None
CurrentOutlook.png
12 Aug 2021 | 1800 UTC | 01M/FALCHION - ADVISORY 1

...FALCHION CHURNING OVER THE BLACK SEA NEAR RUSSIA...

Current center location: 44.0ºN, 37.8ºE
Maximum sustained winds: 25kt/30 MPH/46 kph
Moving: NE at 5kt/6 MPH/10 kph

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 
The area of low pressure over the north-central Black Sea has been classified as Medistorm FALCHION. Falchion is moving slowly to the north-east, and is expected to strengthen and make landfall near Gelendhzik by tomorrow evening. Steering is expected to collapse as Falchion approaches the coast, and the cyclone should stall out near or over the coast for about a day. Following this, Falchion is expected to return to the Black Sea and head SSE toward Turkey, but conditions will not be as favorable and the storm will likely weaken. Another stall is possible in the vicinity of the Turkish coast, and Falchion will dissipate near or over Turkey. 

CURRENT CONDITIONS:
Falchion exhibits a shear pattern, with the low level circulation (LLC) and mid-level circulation (MLC) are widely separated. The MLC is already nearing the Sea of Azov, and is likely to decouple entirely over the next few hours. Ragged convection has developing in wide bands, largely from the MLC. The strongest winds and heaviest rains are found in those bands, which can bring heavy rain and wind hazards to locations well away from the center of the storm.  This structure is expected to continue up to landfall with an increase in wind speed. Interests in southern Russia should be prepared for strong winds and heavy rain, with flash flooding possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1800Z 44.0N  37.8E   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 44.3N  38.0E   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 44.5N  38.1E   40 KT  45 MPH...ON THE COAST
 36H  14/0600Z 45.0N  37.5E   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  14/1800Z 43.8N  35.6E   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  15/1800Z 42.3N  34.7E   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 41.5N  33.0E   15 KT  20 MPH...DISSIPATED

Names

We created a naming list in 2018, consisting of 96 names. There are a total of ninety-six names, which are used in rotation. If a storm is retired, using all letters of the English Alphabet minus U and W. These are the next 10 names. The most recent name to be used was Falchion, which is currently active as of 12 August 2021.

  • Gloria (unused)
  • Helios (unused)
  • Isabella (unused)
  • Jon (unused)
  • Karissa (unused)
  • Luigi (unused)
  • Marquesa (unused)
  • Nikolai (unused)
  • Odessa (unused)

Staff

Staff Position
starfrost / starfrost013 Manager & Creator
TornadoGenius Social Media Manager
Giedriuswithnonlatinname, TornadoGenius, Rafail, Hypercane, RyanKnack Forecasters
Caleb, TheWeatherWill Graphics Team

Discord

https://discord.gg/WTUwpPd

Tracking medicanes since 2018!