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OUTLOOK (MEDI / BLACK SEA)
OUTLOOK (MEDI / BLACK SEA)
SEP 13, 2020 14:00 UTC
SEP 14, 2020 19:00 UTC


1. The area of interest approximately over Valta currently producing vigorous convection, showers, and rainstorms has off and on model support. I am personally working on attempting to obtain ensemble data for this system and use it in future forecasts. The system currently persists in an area of moderate (~20kt) and decreasing shear, a somewhat unstable atmosphere with somewhat significant land-sea temperature inversion, and decreasing wind shear with 28C SSTs , all of which are favourable for development. However, due to the rapidly changing nature of model support for this system, we have elected to only increase the chances of Mediterranean TLC development to 40% for now.
1. The disturbance currently over the extreme southern Mediterranean Sea has developed a trough and is producing vigorous convection. While there is general model consensus that a system will form, there is absolutely no consensus on its intensity. On the extremes, the GFS calls for a barely developing system with a pressure of 1015 millibars, whereas the ICON calls for a pressure of 978 millibars and the SUIS 976 millibars, which if it verifies would be among the five lowest ever recorded in a Mediterranean TLC. I am currently inclined to use the a blend of the forecasts created by the CMC GDPS, JMA, and ARPEGE models (988, mid-990s and 1004 mbars respectively), as these models seem to lay in the middle of the forecast envelope, but this is ultimately a balance fallacy and I will take all models into account. Due to the varying model support, we are increasing the chances to 60 percent for now.  


CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...LOW...0%
It is worth noting that the system is not taking the track the ECMWF and GFS have it taking that results in it entering dry air and not doing anything of note at this time.  


CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS...LOW...40%
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...MEDIUM...50%
 
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...HIGH...60%
2. A disturbance is active in the extreme southwestern Black Sea. It is not expected to develop.
 
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...LOW...0%
 
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS...LOW...0%
 
Forecaster Starfrost, Rafael (for graphic)
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==Staff==
==Staff==

Revision as of 16:12, 14 September 2020

Welcome to the Mediterranean Cyclone Centre!

We are one of the few and by far the most popular source on the Internet for Medicanes, subtropical and tropical cyclones forming in the Mediterranean Sea. We track and archive them, and issue advisories at our Twitter account. If you’d like to help us track, join our Discord, located below:

While the site is being finished, outlooks will be posted here.

Current outlook

CurrentOutlook.png
OUTLOOK (MEDI / BLACK SEA)
SEP 14, 2020 19:00 UTC

1. The disturbance currently over the extreme southern Mediterranean Sea has developed a trough and is producing vigorous convection. While there is general model consensus that a system will form, there is absolutely no consensus on its intensity. On the extremes, the GFS calls for a barely developing system with a pressure of 1015 millibars, whereas the ICON calls for a pressure of 978 millibars and the SUIS 976 millibars, which if it verifies would be among the five lowest ever recorded in a Mediterranean TLC. I am currently inclined to use the a blend of the forecasts created by the CMC GDPS, JMA, and ARPEGE models (988, mid-990s and 1004 mbars respectively), as these models seem to lay in the middle of the forecast envelope, but this is ultimately a balance fallacy and I will take all models into account. Due to the varying model support, we are increasing the chances to 60 percent for now. 

It is worth noting that the system is not taking the track the ECMWF and GFS have it taking that results in it entering dry air and not doing anything of note at this time. 

CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...MEDIUM...50%
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...HIGH...60%

Staff

Staff Position
starfrost / starfrost013 Manager & Creator
Giedriuswithnonlatinname, TornadoGenius, Rafail, Hypercane Forecasters
Caleb, TheWeatherWill Graphics Team


Discord

https://discord.gg/WTUwpPd

Tracking medicanes since 2018!