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==Current outlook==
==Current outlook==
[[File:11th September 2020 1800 UTC Outlook.png|thumb|center|700px]]
[[File:11th September 2020 1800 UTC Outlook.png|thumb|center|700px]]
OUTLOOK (MEDI / BLACK SEA)
SEP 11, 2020 18:00 UTC


1. The area of interest near Sardinia now has a near-zero chance of developing into a Mediterranean TLC as the system begins to sweep southward. Models have noted
OUTLOOK (MEDI / BLACK SEA)
that a possible medicane will develop early next week as it moves northeast from Libya to Greece, but intensity and exact path are not known at this time.
SEP 13, 2020 14:00 UTC


CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...LOW...0%
1. The area of interest approximately over Valta currently producing vigorous convection, showers, and rainstorms has off and on model support. I am personally working on attempting to obtain ensemble data for this system and use it in future forecasts. The system currently persists in an area of moderate (~20kt) and decreasing shear, a somewhat unstable atmosphere with somewhat significant land-sea temperature inversion, and decreasing wind shear with 28C SSTs , all of which are favourable for development. However, due to the rapidly changing nature of model support for this system, we have elected to only increase the chances of Mediterranean TLC development to 40% for now.
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS...LOW...30%


~Forecasters Gitopoulos, Wray
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...LOW...0%
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS...LOW...40%
 
2. A disturbance is active in the extreme southwestern Black Sea. It is not expected to develop.
 
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...LOW...0%
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS...LOW...0%
 
Forecaster Starfrost, Rafael (for graphic)


==Staff==
==Staff==

Revision as of 10:23, 13 September 2020

Welcome to the Mediterranean Cyclone Centre!

We are one of the few and by far the most popular source on the Internet for Medicanes, subtropical and tropical cyclones forming in the Mediterranean Sea. We track and archive them, and issue advisories at our Twitter account. If you’d like to help us track, join our Discord, located below:

While the site is being finished, outlooks will be posted here.

Current outlook

11th September 2020 1800 UTC Outlook.png

OUTLOOK (MEDI / BLACK SEA) SEP 13, 2020 14:00 UTC

1. The area of interest approximately over Valta currently producing vigorous convection, showers, and rainstorms has off and on model support. I am personally working on attempting to obtain ensemble data for this system and use it in future forecasts. The system currently persists in an area of moderate (~20kt) and decreasing shear, a somewhat unstable atmosphere with somewhat significant land-sea temperature inversion, and decreasing wind shear with 28C SSTs , all of which are favourable for development. However, due to the rapidly changing nature of model support for this system, we have elected to only increase the chances of Mediterranean TLC development to 40% for now.

CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...LOW...0% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS...LOW...40%

2. A disturbance is active in the extreme southwestern Black Sea. It is not expected to develop.

CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...LOW...0% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS...LOW...0%

Forecaster Starfrost, Rafael (for graphic)

Staff

Staff Position
starfrost / starfrost013 Manager & Creator
Giedriuswithnonlatinname, TornadoGenius, Rafail, Hypercane Forecasters
Caleb, TheWeatherWill Graphics Team


Discord

https://discord.gg/WTUwpPd

Tracking medicanes since 2018!